Kenya Observatory: How the war “impacts” far from Europe
“Eat cassava if there is no bread”. Eat cassava if there is no bread: the phrase pronounced by Ugandan President Museveni well summed up the critical situation that the conflict in Ukraine has caused in this part of the world. The Horn of Africa area is in fact experiencing the strongest drought in 40 years (source: Financial Times, 3 May 2022) and 20 million people are at risk, including those in the areas of Baringo, Kenya, where we operate. A dramatic situation The month of April saw queues and blockages due to the fuel shortage in Kenya, which unfortunately still persists in many areas. Even in Nakuru, the pumps have intermittent supplies. Nairobi has experienced dramatic moments with traffic paralyzed by motorists queuing at the only station with some supplies. And obviously speculation has made its entrance with requests for exorbitant prices at the pump. Fertilizers and the prices of many raw materials for animal and human food have doubled or more with strong inflationary pressure. The animal feed sector, which had already launched a desperate cry of alarm last December, is now in a worse crisis. The region’s dependence on imports from Ukraine and Russia (over 60% on wheat) has shown the vulnerability of agricultural policies. The price per ton has gone from around 280 dollars to almost 600 and the consequences are already being felt with increases of over 10% for bread. Further price increases are forecast in a situation where wheat by-products for animal feed are already in short supply.
Even milk, the most consumed food in Kenya with about 100 liters per capita per year, has seen a dramatic reduction due to drought and the feed crisis. It is difficult to find it in supermarkets and very often the few supplies are limited and purchases are rationed. The hunger for investments has caused the country’s debt to rise from 38% of GDP in 2012 to almost 70% today, with a government budget deficit of 8%. It has caused a sensation that for the first time in the history of the country, spending on debt repayment has exceeded spending on state personnel and is the first outgoing of the government budget. The rating of the main agencies is negative and just one step above zone C.
The impact on environmental resources
The inflationary pressure resulting from the war has been exacerbated by the increase in fuel prices, which in the two years of the project increased by 70%. And with it that of gas and paraffin. This fact is particularly dramatic as it pushes the population towards biomass resources. Wood and coal are therefore becoming alternatives for domestic needs not only for rural areas but also for urban areas, given the decrease in disposable income. Unfortunately, urban demand is pushing rural areas, hit by the crisis, to respond. In the streets of Baringo you can see with your own eyes the dramatic nature of the situation: dozens and dozens of motorbikes loaded with bags of charcoal cross each other on the road towards the towns of Mogotio and Nakuru. A painful procession that shows the environmental damage caused by the situation and the desperation of the communities.
The aftermath of the pandemic
Kenya, by the way, had just emerged from the pandemic crisis, which led to the almost total blockade of tourism, (-95% of arrivals), the loss of many jobs and the bankruptcy of numerous businesses as well as a strong threat to conservation efforts. On the tourism front, the famous Hilton hotel, Nairobi’s center of high-end business and tourism, announced its closure, as did the historic hotels in the Aberderes, which had seen Princess Elizabeth become queen upon the death of her father.
The Agrichange project
Mani Tese has been fighting for years in Kenya for a policy of support for small producers that allows them to be protagonists and to obtain a fair return on their activity. From 2020 to the end of 2022, Mani Tese together with the historic local partner NECOFA and the partners KOAN, E4IMPACT, APAM, University of Turin, SIVAM and Università Cattolica, is implementing the project “Agri-change: small businesses, big opportunities. Development of agri-food supply chains in the Molo river basin” , co-financed by the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation, which aims to create income and resilience opportunities in the focus areas of our work: Baringo and partly Molo.
Unfortunately, the project has had to face increasingly stormy seas since its inception: from the lockdowns of 2021 and the various pandemic waves, which dealt an initial blow to the local economy, to the current crisis. There is also the uncertainty typical of the electoral process, as the country is preparing for presidential elections that are expected to be complex and tense. The aforementioned drought and the effects of climate change have further fueled this perfect storm. Agrichange ‘s goal is to promote two value chains, the animal one and the honey one, in the Baringo area and the promotion of mushroom farming in the Molo area. Despite the difficulties, we managed to build all the structures and a significant effort was made to support the honey and circular farming supply chains. To date, honey has been hit hard by the drought with reduced production volumes but it still has strong potential especially if the wet season helps in the recovery of production. Furthermore, the recent mission of APAM technicians in Kenya has helped small local producers, who have been able to learn how to better manage the hives. English: As regards circular farming, currently the selling prices have made pig farming highly unprofitable and the groups formed are drastically reducing the number of animals while waiting for an improvement. The situation is particularly critical in Baringo, where Mani Tese is working with other projects to support the community with alternative income-generating activities. Fortunately, the mushroom growing part is the one that is having the most success, with the establishment of five active producer groups and a constant production of oyster mushrooms in the Molo area, which provides strong support to the producers’ income. With the timid start of rainfall in early May, the project team provided for the distribution of seeds and phytocells for the communities in Marigat in order to support the groups and families in this difficult moment. Thanks to Agrichange we then worked with E4Impact for the training and start-up of small local businesses. Thanks to this activity some young people will benefit from a fund to start small entrepreneurial activities, thus giving a message of hope in this difficult situation. Together with the University of Turin we then worked on the creation of a soldier fly farm for the production of larvae for animal feed, which, although affected by the general situation, has potential margins for the future. 6 months after the end of the Agrichange projectwe are living in a complex moment. The continuous crises have given a very hard blow to the morale of the staff and the local partner NECOFA. Despite everything, we continue to work even in the darkest and most complex moments because this is our responsibility and this is our concrete commitment to justice.